Capital flows and financial stability: the mexican experience

Abstract

This paper argues that capital inflows that are not well absorbed by the private sector will cause financial instability under a fixed exchange rate regime. Whether capital inflows, particularly portfolio inflows, are good or bad as perceived by the recipient emerging market depends on how they are allocated and used. They can, if absorbed properly, contribute to a reduction in the cost of capital and to domestic capital formation and economic growth. On the other hand, they can also flood the domestic market, build up official reserves, and appreciate the real exchange rate. Moreover, they are very sensitive to political and economic shocks. Empirical analysis of Mexico's recent experience reveals that the capital influx into Mexico in the past decade did not contribute much to capital formation and economic growth. Instead, they were to a large degree absorbed by official reserves and imports for consumption. Capital inflows were a major factor in Mexico's real exchange rate appreciation. Capital flows in Mexico are found to be adversely affected by U.S. interest rates.