Abstract
To date there has been no evaluation of the capabilities of the Baltic Sea ecosystem models to provide information as outlined by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. This work aims to fill in this knowledge gap by exploring the modelling potential of nine Baltic Sea ecosystem models to support this specific European policy and, in particular, models' capabilities to inform on marine biodiversity. Several links are found between the Model-Derived Indicators and some of the relevant biodiversity-related descriptors (i.e. biological diversity and food webs), and pressures (i.e. interference with hydrological processes, nutrient and organic matter enrichment and marine acidification). However several gaps remain, in particular in the limited representation of habitats other than the pelagic that the models are able to address for descriptor sea-floor integrity and inability to assess descriptor non-indigenous species. The general outcome is that the Baltic Sea models considered do not adequately cover all the requested needs of the MSFD, but can potentially do so to a certain extent, while for some descriptors/criteria/indicators/pressures new indicators and/or modelling techniques need to be developed in order to satisfactorily address the requirement of the MSFD and assess the environmental status of the Baltic Sea.
Highlights
Environmental Status is used here to discern from Good Ecological Status (GEcS) defined by the Water Framework Directive [3].of the marine environment is at a level that is sustainable, safeguarding the potential for use and activities by current and future generations’
Of the 201 indicators derived from the full set of models, only 22 Model-Derived Indicators (MDI) are addressed by the Baltic Sea ecosystem models relevant to one or more descriptors (Table 5 and Fig. 4)
A more detailed analysis that links the biodiversity-related indicators to each Baltic model (Section 3.2) has highlighted the current and potential capabilities of the available Baltic Sea models, together with some suggested developments of new features and/or modelling techniques
Summary
Environmental Status is used here to discern from Good Ecological Status (GEcS) defined by the Water Framework Directive [3].of the marine environment is at a level that is sustainable, safeguarding the potential for use and activities by current and future generations’. With the aim to support its implementation, the MSFD sets out in Annex I 11 qualitative descriptors (D1-D11, Table 1), either state or pressure descriptors. A Commission decision defines 29 related criteria and 56 related indicators [4] that are used in the assessment of the status of the seas. Descriptors/criteria/indicators/pressures are here identified in italics when strictly referring to those defined by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive.
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