Cancer mortality and predictions for 2018 in selected Australasian countries and Russia.

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Predicted cancer mortality figures and rates are useful for public health planning. We retrieved cancer death certification data for 10 major cancer sites and total cancers from the World Health Organization (WHO) database and population data from WHO and United Nations Population Division databases. We obtained figures for Russia, Israel, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, Korea, and Australia in 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths by age group and age-standardized rates (world population) for 2018 by applying a linear regression to mortality data of each age group over the most recent trend segment identified by a joinpoint regression model. Russia had the highest predicted total cancer mortality rates, 158.5/100000 men and 84.1/100000 women. Men in the Philippines showed the lowest rates for 2018 (84.6/100000) and Korean males the most favourable predicted fall (21% between 2012 and 2018). Women in Korea had the lowest total cancer predicted rate (52.5/100000). Between 1993 and 2018, i.e. by applying the 1993 rates to populations in subsequent years, a substantial number of cancer deaths was avoided in Russia (1000000 deaths, 821000 in men and 179000 in women), Israel (40000 deaths, 21000 in men and 19000 in women), Hong Kong (63000 deaths, 40000 in men and 23000 in women), Japan (651000 deaths, 473000 in men and 178000 in women), Korea (327000 deaths, 250000 in men and 77000 in women), and Australia (181000 deaths, 125000 in men and 56000 in women). No appreciable reduction in cancer deaths was found in the Philippines. Overall, we predicted falls in cancer mortality. However, these are less marked and later compared with the European Union and United States. Substantial numbers of deaths were avoided in all countries considered except the Philippines. Lung cancer mortality remains exceedingly high in Russian men, despite recent falls.