Abstract
Canada, like other high latitude cold regions on Earth, is experiencing some of the most accelerated and intense warming resulting from global climate change. In the northern regions, Arctic amplification has resulted in warming two to three times greater than global mean temperature trends. Unprecedented warming is matched by intensification of wet and dry regions and hydroclimatic cycles, which is altering the spatial and seasonal distribution of surface waters in Canada. Diagnosing and tracking hydrologic change across Canada requires the implementation of continental-scale prediction models owing the size of Canada’s drainage basins, their distribution across multiple eco- and climatic zones, and the scarcity and paucity of observational networks. This review examines the current state of continental-scale climate change across Canada and the anticipated impacts to freshwater availability, including the role of anthropogenic regulation. The review focuses on continental and regional-scale prediction that underpins operational design and long-term resource planning and management in Canada. While there are significant process-based changes being experienced within Canadian catchments that are equally—if not more so—critical for community water availability, the focus of this review is on the cumulative effects of climate change and anthropogenic regulation for the Canadian freshwater supply.
Highlights
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The Arctic region is warming at a rate 1.5 to 4.5 times faster than the global mean [1], which has significant implications for Canada as more than 35% of the global pan-Arctic basin being Canadian territory [2], and >40% of Canada being classified as Arctic
Data obtained from the Canadian Natural Disaster Database (CDD) indicate that the majority of natural disasters in Canada are related to extreme precipitation Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEWand flood events (Figure 1)
Summary
The recent release of the Canadian Climate Change Report in 2019 (CCCR2019) confirmed what many Canadian scientists have been warning of for decades: climate change is here, it is very real, and it is hitting Canada harder than most other regions of the world. Despite considerable uncertainty among future climate models and projections, there is a high degree of confidence that temperatures will continue to increase across Canada, and at a rate faster than the global mean temperature. Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) fifth assessment report, there is high confidence that precipitation at higher latitudes will increase, but less confidence in mean seasonal increases or decreases. It is generally thought that, globally, wet regions are tending towards becoming wetter and dry regions are becoming drier [7] Under such a scenario, it is possible the Canadian Prairies and Palliser’s triangle (a semi-arid region of the western Canadian Prairies) may become drier, if evapotranspiration outpaces smaller increases in precipitation under much warmer climates [8]
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