Canada–United States Environmental Relations during the Trudeau-Trump Years: A Story of Divergence and Resilience

Abstract

ABSTRACT More than any previous presidential transition, the 2016 election of Donald Trump gave rise to fears on both sides of the border as to what consequences might follow for the state of the environment. In Canada, by contrast, the 2015 election of a Liberal government was widely expected to produce a significant increase in both environmental spending and regulation. Divergence in the environmental policies of the two countries and friction over transboundary environmental issues appeared likely. Three years after the election of President Trump, the environmental policy conflicts between Canada and the United States are fewer and less fractious than many anticipated. Moreover, the consequences for Canada of the Trump administration’s weaker concern for the environment also have been less dire than many predicted. In short, the environmental relationship between Canada and the United States has proved to be more resilient than expected. Two main factors are responsible for blunting the bilateral effects of an undeniable and wide gap between the Trudeau and Trump governments on the environment. One involves the nature of environmental policy, characterized by high levels of technical and scientific complexity, multiple stakeholders, and the important role of subnational governments. The second factor involves governmental structure. In particular, the American system of divided powers makes it more difficult than Canada’s more centralized, prime ministerial system of government to change the direction of policy.