Can the UK meet the World Health Organization PM2.5 interim target of 10 μg m−3 by 2030?

Abstract

The recent United Kingdom (UK) Environment Act consultation had the intention of setting two targets for PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm), one related to meeting an annual average concentration and the second to reducing population exposure. As part of the consultation, predictions of PM2.5 concentrations in 2030 were made by combining European Union (EU) and UK government’s emissions forecasts, with the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) Net Zero vehicle forecasts, and in London with the addition of local policies based on the London Environment Strategy (LES). Predictions in 2018 showed 6.4% of the UK’s area and 82.6% of London’s area had PM2.5 concentrations above the World Health Organization (WHO) interim target of 10 μg m−3, but by 2030, over 99% of the UK’s area was predicted to be below it. However, kerbside concentrations in London and other major cities were still at risk of exceeding 10 μg m−3. With local action on PM2.5 in London, population weighted concentrations showed full compliance with the WHO interim target of 10 μg m−3 in 2030. However, predicting future PM2.5 concentrations and interpreting the results will always be difficult and uncertain for many reasons, such as imperfect models and the difficulty in estimating future emissions. To help understand the sensitivity of the model’s PM2.5 predictions in 2030, current uncertainty was quantified using PM2.5 measurements and showed large areas in the UK that were still at risk of exceeding the WHO interim target despite the model predictions being below 10 μg m−3. Our results do however point to the benefits that policy at EU, UK and city level can have on achieving the WHO interim target of 10 μg m−3. These results were submitted to the UK Environment Act consultation. Nevertheless, the issues addressed here could be applicable to other European cities.