Abstract
Which of several alternative population forecasts is the âbestâ or the most plausible? In published work summarized here, we use Taylorâs law (TL) and its quadratic generalization to select the best among six alternative projections (by Statistics Norway) of Norwegian county population density. We consider two time scales: long term (1978â2010 as the historical basis for projections of 2011â2040) and short term (2006â2010 as the historical basis for projections of 2011â2015). We find that the short-term projections selected as âbestâ by TL are more closely aligned than the four other projections with the recent county density data, and reflect the current high rate of international net immigration to Norway. Our approach needs to be further tested using other data and demographic forecasts.
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