Can probability neglect bias promote social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic?

Abstract

The effectiveness of a stay-at-home order depends on the speed of behavioral changes that are triggered by risk perception. Probability neglect bias, one of the cognitive biases, may lead people to engage in social distancing. However, there is no empirical evidence of the relationship between probability neglect bias and social distancing. This study aims to examine the relationship between individual differences in susceptibility to probability neglect bias and the level of social distancing practice during the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan. The level of engagement in social distancing was defined as the narrowing of life-space mobility. We conducted a web-based questionnaire survey among 1000 adults living in central Tokyo, Japan, at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak. Our results show that people had a strong fear of infection in the early pandemic stages. Approximately 60% of our subjects were influenced by probability neglect bias. People susceptible to probability neglect bias engaged in social distancing more intensely than those who were not susceptible after the state of emergency was lifted.