Abstract
We investigate the age structured data for the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan. We consider epidemic mathematical model with unreported infectious patient with and without age structure. In particular, we build a new mathematical model which allows to take into account differences in the response of patients to the disease according to their age. This model also allows for a heterogeneous response of the population to the social distancing measures taken by the local government. We fit this model to the observed data and obtain a snapshot of the effective transmissions occurring inside the population at different times, which indicates where and among whom the disease propagates after the start of the public measures.
Highlights
COVID-19 disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
These findings suggest that a study of the dynamics of inter-generational spread is fundamental to better understand the spread of the coronavirus and most importantly to efficiently fight the COVID-19 pandemic
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has lead many local governments to enforce drastic control measures in an effort to stop its progression. Those control measures were often taken in a state of emergency and without any real visibility concerning the later development of the epidemics, to prevent the collapse of the health systems under the pressure of severe cases
Summary
Symptoms of this disease include fever, shortness of breath, cough, and a non-negligible proportion of infected individuals may develop severe forms of the symptoms leading to their transfer to intensive care units and, in some cases, death, see e.g., Guan et al [3] and Wei et al [4]. Both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals can be infectious [4,5,6], which makes the control of the disease challenging. Wu et al [16] have shown that the risk of developing symptoms increases by 4% per year in adults aged between 30 and 60 years old while Davies et al [17] found that there is a strong correlation between chronological age and the likelihood of developing symptoms
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