Abstract
The age old problem of underperformance in petroleum explora¬tion is directly related to over-optimistic evaluations of the size of undrilled prospects. Although the assessment of geological risk in proven plays is usually not a problem, the chance of economic success is generally much lower than predicted by companies as a consequence of the deficit in expected volumes. An EAGE workshop held in Copenhagen in June 2018 addressed this issue and one of the outcomes was the recommendation that prospect evaluations are more closely linked to historical data, particularly on the downside size of discoveries.
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