Can grain production be synergistic with socioeconomic development?—Empirical evidence from the agro-pastoral ecotone in North China

Abstract

PurposeGrain production is an important foundation for economic development and social stability. Studying the interaction characteristics and influence mechanism between grain production and socioeconomic development is beneficial for promoting economic development and improving people’s well-being. MethodsBased on the water and carbon footprint perspective, this study first uses the Super-SBM model to measure the green production efficiency of grain in the agro-pastoral transition zone in North China from 2000 to 2020. Second, the theoretical logic of the synergy between grain production and socioeconomic development is established and the PVAR model is applied to verify the interaction. Third, the synergistic level is measured using the coupling coordination model. Finally, its dynamic evolution, regional differences and influencing factors are analysed by using kernel density estimation, the Dagum coefficient decomposition and the GTWR model. ResultsThe results show that ① The green production efficiency of grain first decreases and then increases, and the value is generally stable at approximately 1. ② The coupling coordination level shows an upwards trend of fluctuation; it moves from the mildly dissonant to the barely coordination stage, and many regions belong to the rich grain and poor area. ③ The regional differences show an overall decreasing trend, and the main source is intraregional differences. Environmental regulation has the greatest negative influence on the spatial and temporal divergence of coupling coordination, followed by the positive influence of urbanization.