Can Florida’s Coast Survive Its Reliance on Development?

Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings With its densely built coastline and economic and fiscal reliance on development, Florida is an extreme case of how climate change threatens both the built environment and urban land governance. We conducted one of the first statewide assessments of how sea level rise will affect Florida’s municipal revenues. We paired this with a statewide survey of coastal planners and managers to assess how they have been funding climate adaptation. We found that more than half of Florida’s 410 municipalities will be affected by sea level rise, exposing on average almost 30% of local revenues. Yet, though climate impacts will significantly stress local fiscal health, we found no relationship between cities’ prioritization of climate adaptation and their fiscal exposure. Takeaway for practice Municipal revenues will become increasingly eroded by climate impacts and market responses. More fiscally affected municipalities are comparatively smaller, Whiter, and wealthier. They may be better able to invest in near-term adaptations, but long-term sea level rise could erode local fiscal capacity to maintain infrastructure and protect local tax bases. These municipalities’ fiscal health and decline will affect regionwide housing markets, gentrification, and displacement. These dynamics underscore the need for stronger regional climate assessments and land and tax governance to overcome challenges facing coastal and near-coastal municipalities.