Risk assessment of wave run-up height and armor stability of inclined coastal structures subject to long-term sea level rise

Abstract

In this study, a risk assessment system has been developed by performing the reliability analysis for wave run-up and armor stability of inclined coastal structures for various scenarios of long-term sea level rise due to climate change. The change of probability of failure for armor stability and wave run-up due to sea level rise has been calculated against various design parameters such as size of armor units, structure slope, and freeboard of the structure. It is found that the effect of sea level rise is negligible outside the surf zone. Inside the surf zone, however, the effect increases with decreasing water depth so that more increase of probability of failure is calculated in smaller water depth for the same sea level rise. By comparing the results before and after the sea level rise, it is possible to evaluate how the sea level rise influences wave run-up and armor stability of the structure. The results of the present study could be used for maintenance or reinforcement planning of existing structures as well as in the design of new structures to cope with future sea level rise.