Can Democratic Consolidation Make a Country Less Secure? The Case of Taiwan

Abstract

In a comparatively short time and under constant th reat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan transformed into a genuine functional democracy. Underpinning this rapid and relatively pea ceful transformation to a multiparty democracy were deliberate actions taken during Taiwan’s latter authoritarian days to fundamentally alter the shape democracy would take on the i sland. This shift has allowed for greater connections within Taiwanese society not only for t he then-ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party, but for the opposition while encouraging both sides to moderate their stances regarding Taiwan’s ideal relationship vis-a-vis China. The resul t has been a consolidated democracy mirroring Western counterparts while providing an example of a successful transition under less than ideal conditions. While the speed of consolidation may be encouraging and certainly suggests greater internal stability, democratization has also created the potential for greater conflict with China. In an effort to curry electoral support, Taiwanese politicians often are motivated to take stances that deviate from the vague “One China” pol icy once respected by both sides of the strait. The lack of a unified voice on Taiwan’s rel ations with China along with an increasing number of domestically popular but controversial re forms creates fertile ground for a misunderstanding that could lead to military conflict. S imilarly, Taiwan’s previous successes may lead politicians to underestimate the risk in futur e reforms. More generally, Taiwan’s democratization has stretched the boundaries of US secur ity commitments while potentially increasing the potential flashpoints for cross-strait conf lict. This paper will first analyze the process of Taiwan ’s democratization in regards to manipulation of the political space by Taiwan’s polit ical elite. From there an analysis of issue saliency and party stability suggests a level of in stitutionalization rare in young democracies. From there, I shift to the negative ramifications that are perhap s unique to Taiwan’s path to democracy, suggesting areas of conflict which remai n poorly analyzed. Through this, I hope to highlight not only the path of Taiwan’s democrat ization, but its broader impact on crossstrait relations.