Can Bioenergy Once again Become a Major Global Energy Source?

Abstract

For all of human history except the past two centuries or so, bioenergy provided nearly all the world’s primary energy. Then, fossil fuels largely replaced bioenergy, but concern about climate change and fossil fuel depletion will force a move back to renewable energy, including bioenergy. The main method used here to study the future of global bioenergy was a literature surview of relevant published papers, with emphasis both on those published after 2020, and those having a global focus. The key finding is that bioenergy is unlikely to greatly increase its share of global energy consumption, for several reasons. Liquid biofuel production for transport is likely to almost disappear as countries progressively phase out internal combustion engine vehicles. Traditional firewood use is also projected to fall. There are also doubts about the technical potential of bioenergy, not only because it must compete with the other uses for biomass—food, fodder, fibre and timber—but also because in many cases its climate change mitigation impact is less than for other approaches, including alternative renewable energy sources. The overall conclusion is that bioenergy will have a minor but still useful role in the future global energy system, but global energy reductions are likely to be more important for climate stability than bioenergy.