基于CA-Markov的土地利用时空变化与生境质量预测——以宁夏中部干旱区为例

Abstract The stability of property rights is a key factor in incentivizing farmers to engage in land use and protection activities, which, in turn, serve to mitigate or prevent the degradation of land resources and enhance the effectiveness of agricultural management practices. This research uses Scientometric analysis according to PRISMA guidelines to thoroughly examine academic landscape related to the stability of farmland property rights and its impact on farmers' land utilization and protection behaviors. By examining 4165 publications from 2014 to 2023 in Web of Science and Scopus databases, the study conducts a comprehensive analysis. Theoretical frameworks elucidate three primary avenues through which property rights influence farmers' behavior: the assurance effect, collateral effect, and realizable effect. Through document co‐citation analysis 11 distinct thematic clusters were revealed, highlighting the prominence of land tenure security (Cluster #0). Notably, Ma X's publication experienced a significant 4‐year surge, indicating its key influence. Author co‐citation analysis outlined author clusters, emphasizing the increasing relevance of authors like Cotula L, Angelsen A, and De Schuttero during specific periods. Journal co‐citation analysis revealed cohesive journal clusters such as Development and Change and Journal of Peasant Studies, showcasing thematic boundaries within clusters. Keywords co‐citation analysis (CO‐DESC) identified thematic clusters around “China,” “agricultural land,” and “land use,” with keywords like “land degradation” exhibiting substantial bursts. This systematic analysis highlights influential publications, authors, journals, and thematic clusters, emphasizing the structured landscape within farmland property rights research and revealing critical aspects impacting farmers' behavior and land use.

The change in the land spatial structure affects regional development and stability. In the context of the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, studying the spatial structure changes in its important cities will contribute to the coordinated development of the region. This study uses spatial analysis and coupling models to explore the basic characteristics and evolutionary trends of the land spatial structure in Zhongshan city in 2000, 2011, 2022, and 2035. Through research, it is found that (1) in general, the urban space is divided into different geometric forms by the water network system. The spatial structure of living land is ‘fragmentation-aggregation-aggregation and fragmentation’. (2) Ecological land is concentrated in the southeast and remained relatively stable. Productive land accounts for the largest proportion in Northeast China, becoming the main area of agricultural development. (3) From 2022 to 2035, the area of productive land will increase in different ranges under four scenarios, and the area of productive land will increase the fastest under the urbanization development scenario (UDS). (4) The ecological land area increases only in the ecological protection scenario (EPS), and the area decreases in the other three scenarios. An increase in construction land area occurs in the urbanization development scenario (UDS) and nature development scenario (NDS). (5) The habitat quality of Zhongshan city showed a significant decline from 2000 to 2022. In 2035, the habitat quality will significantly improve in the ecological protection scenario (EPS) and sustainable development scenario (SDS) scenarios, and the ecological regions in Southeast China will be significantly clustered and expanded.

Habitat quality reflects the level of biodiversity, and habitat maintenance functions are related to human well-being and ecosystem stability. Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is a typical ecologically fragile region in Western China with complex human-nature relationships. Maintaining good habitat is not only a fundamental requirement for biodiversity conservation but also a necessary path for sustainable regional development. In this study, we assessed and analysed the spatial and temporal patterns and changes in habitat quality in Ningxia from 2000 to 2020, and explored the driving factors of habitat quality using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicated: (1) The overall habitat quality level in Ningxia was low to intermediate, with an upwards and then downwards trend during the past 20 years, showing a small change in overall magnitude. (2) The high- and higher-level habitat quality patches in Ningxia were mainly distributed in areas with high vegetation cover, such as the Helan Mountain and Liupan Mountain. The patches of moderate-level habitat quality mainly included cultivated land, while the low- and lower-level patches were mainly distributed in areas subjected to more frequent human activities, such as cultivated land and construction land. (3) The spatial and temporal distribution patterns and changes in habitat quality in Ningxia from 2000 to 2020 were mainly influenced by fractional vegetation cover (FVC), soil moisture content (SMC), proportion of construction land area (PCL), and proportion of cultivated land area (CLP). Among them, FVC and SMC were positive driving factors, and PCL and CLP were negative driving factors. The results support that increasing vegetation cover and reducing anthropogenic disturbance to natural habitats are important measures to maintain fragile habitats and that key ecological function areas such as nature reserves are crucial for habitat quality protection in ecologically fragile areas.

Abstract Exploring the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use and its driving force can provide scientific basis for the construction of regional ecological civilization. Based on the remote sensing cloud computing platform of Google Earth Engine (GEE), the study took the remote sensing images of the three periods of 2000, 2010 and 2020 as the basic data and interpreted them to obtain the basic land use data of Putian city and its five districts and counties. The land-use change characteristics of Putian city in those periods were systematically analyzed by using the methods of single land-use dynamics and Geo-informatic Tupu, so as to reveal the Tupu characteristics of land-use transfer and the spatial-temporal evolution pattern in the past 20 years. Then social and economic development indicators were selected to further explore the key driving force of land-use evolution in the study area by canonical correspondence analysis. The results showed that: 1) the land use structure of Putian city was mainly composed of cultivated land and forest land, and the other land types were embedded in them and the built-up land continued to expand outward. 2) The spatial distribution of Tupu units of land use transfer in Putian city was significantly different, change types of land use were diversified and the areas of cultivated land and grassland transferred out were the most obvious. Different degrees of cultivated land abandonment had occurred in various regions. Putian city was facing great challenges in ensuring food security and curbing the non-agricultural and non grain of cultivated land. 3) The macro-economic development in a specific period, especially the urban expansion and the development of the secondary industry caused by the merger of cities and counties, were the key factors driving the spatial and temporal evolution of land use and the differential distribution pattern in Putian city. The author suggested that land resources should be used efficiently in addition to optimizing the layout of land use and carrying out the renovation of abandoned land. Therefore, the study proposed to strengthen the scientific planning and effective regulation of land use, combine spatial and temporal resources of cultivated land with agriculture, culture and tourism, and build ecological barriers and ecological corridors to ensure the coordinated and sustainable development of regional ecology and economy.

IntroductionThis study focuses on the Ganqing section of the Yellow River Basin, exploring four land use scenarios: natural development, cropland protection, ecological protection, and rapid development. Given the ecological importance of this area, the research aims to evaluate how each scenario impacts habitat quality and land use sustainability by 2030.MethodsThe Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model and the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model were applied to simulate land use for each scenario. A habitat quality pattern and coupling coordination degree model was used to assess the interactions between land use and land cover change (LULCC) and habitat quality under different scenarios.ResultsFindings show that over 70% of the Ganqing section of the Yellow River Basin is primarily grassland. By 2030, the ecological protection scenario is predicted to have the highest habitat quality, followed by the natural development, rapid development, and cropland protection scenarios. Between 1990 and 2030, the area demonstrates predominantly high or moderate coordination between land use and habitat quality. Spatial analysis reveals lower coordination values in the southeast and higher values in the northwest, with imbalanced recession zones distributed around valley basins.DiscussionThis study highlights the value of strategic scenario planning in enhancing habitat quality and promoting sustainable land management in the Ganqing section of the Yellow River Basin. The ecological protection scenario shows the most promise for balancing development with habitat preservation, underscoring the importance of adopting land use policies that support ecological sustainability in vulnerable areas.

Under the context of climate change, the energy exchange mechanisms between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere are highly complex. This study investigates the impact of land cover changes on solar radiation using China's land cover data and surface solar radiation absorption data. We analyze the data changes over two adjacent periods and integrate additional factors to explore the impacts of surface cover changes on solar radiation. The results indicate that:(1) Although grassland and bare land are the land categories with the largest area share, their radiation absorption capacity is significantly lower than that of water body and forests. (2) During 2001-2020, 84.94% of land remains unchanged, but the expansion of the forested land and the reduction of the bare land in the changed areas have a significant impact on the radiation absorption, which suggests that the policy should focus on the restoration of the forested land of the arid area, bare land on the edge of the city, and greening, so as to minimize the intervention cost and maximize the benefits of climate moderation. This study provides a key theoretical basis for constructing a comprehensive evaluation model of "land-climate-ecology" synergy by revealing the multi-process coupling mechanism and cascading response relationship of solar radiation absorption by land cover change.