Calm Before the Storm?

Abstract

Atlantic hurricane season poses an annual threat to the billions of dollars of oil and gas hardware pumping hydrocarbons from the depths of the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The region’s offshore production amounts to about 1.8 million B/D—roughly 14% of the total crude output in the US, according to the US Energy Information Administration, so any disruption is felt by oil markets across the globe. Prior to the 2024 hurricane season, forecasters pegged this year as primed to be particularly intense. Colorado State University (CSU), known for its storm prognostication, estimated that the basin would experience 23 named storms, with a dozen of those becoming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and six of those strengthening to major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher). Similarly, AccuWeather meteorologists expect between 20 and 25 named storms with a possibility of 30 or more. As the season enters its busy period, the basin has only experienced five named storms to date; however, many forecasters are sticking to their initial forecasts and continue to warn of an intense September/October period. “The months of September and October should be very active across the Atlantic,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. “We continue to remain very concerned about rapid intensification. Sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content are near record levels across most of the Atlantic basin. This can act like jet fuel for tropical systems. We also continue to believe that La Niña will emerge sometime in November. When water temperatures near the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean are lower than the long-term historical averages for an extended period, La Niña is declared. Although this is a phenomenon in the Pacific, it has ramifications for weather patterns over the Atlantic Ocean. Specifically, La Niña can reduce the wind shear across the basin. When wind shear is lower, it makes it easier for tropical systems to take shape and strengthen.” The GOM has experienced one disruption in 2024 courtesy of Hurricane Beryl. Once a Category 5 storm (winds 155 mph and higher)—and the earliest-forming Category 5 storm on record—Beryl weakened as it crossed the southern Yucatán. The storm regained Category 1 strength as it crossed the far western offshore oil patch enroute to landfall near Matagorda Bay, Texas. Shell shut in production at its Perdido spar because of the storm as well as evacuated personnel from it and its Whale facility. Chevron moved all non-essential personnel off its Anchor floating production unit, which was undergoing commissioning at the time. The last major storm to cut a path straight through the heart of the US offshore oil patch was 2021’s Hurricane Ida. Ida tore through the region as a Category 4 storm before slamming into the Louisiana coast near Port Fourchon packing 150 mph winds on 29 August. The storm prompted the shut in of almost 100% of the Gulf’s oil and gas production and caused extensive damage to major hubs in the region, including the Shell-operated West Delta Block 143 complex. The facilities, which serve as the transfer station for production from Shell’s robust Mars corridor, were off line for several months.