Abstract
Fossil fuels are the primary sources of energy powering economic development globally. Increased fossil fuel consumption produces Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) which build in the atmosphere and trap heat irradiated from the Earth. The increased concentration of these gases causes global warming and extensive climate disruptions. This study examined GHG emissions data from 2000-2017 to evaluate whether California will meet GHG emissions reduction target of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 as mandated by California’s Executive Order B-30-15. California’s ability to reduce GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (Executive Order S-3-05) was also evaluated. Results indicate that transportation, electric power, industrial and commercial/residential) GHG emissions reductions declined by small magnitudes in the 18-year period (0.17% to 2.49%). In agriculture, refrigerant and recycling/waste agencies, emissions reductions increased in the 18-year period (0.08% to 0.8%). For 2030 and 2050 emissions reductions targets, no emissions category sector will achieve the targeted reduction. The highest emissions reduction amounts discrepancies between observed and expected were in transportation, industrial and commercial/residential sectors (2030); and in transportation, industrial and agricultural facilities (2050). An analysis of current trends and technological developments in each emissions sector is presented to guide and structure future emissions target reductions.
Highlights
Global economic growth is directly linked to increased energy consumption
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuels combustion are accompanied by other hazardous co-pollutants such as Particulate Matter (PM), ozone-forming Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) that cause increases in mortality due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases (Cushing et al, 2018)
The short- and long-term health benefits accruing from decreases in GHG emissions from fossil fuel combustion greatly improve local air quality; and evidence that the economic cost savings of reduced air-pollution-related illnesses and death outweighs the costs of GHG mitigation abounds (Smith & Haigler, 2008; Nemet et al, 2010)
Summary
Global economic growth is directly linked to increased energy consumption. International efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to well below 2°C and to “pursue efforts” to avoid a 1.5°C temperature rise requires a transition to net-zero emissions energy systems by 2050 (Tong et al, 2019). 2. Method Using the emissions data from 2000-2017, the study’s first null hypothesis was that the total yearly greenhouse gas emissions observed in each emissions category from 2018 to 2030, were no different from those expected if California met the Executive Order B-30-15 (EO) interim greenhouse gas reduction target of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. The study’s second null hypothesis was that the total yearly greenhouse gas emissions observed in each emissions category from 2018 to 2050, were no different from those expected if California met the Executive Order S-3-05 of 2005 with a greenhouse gas reduction target of 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. How short were the emission amounts relative to the 2050 target? How long would it take CA to reach the 2050 targets assuming the same rates of reduction as observed? 5) What annual reductions amounts would be required if CA were to meet the 2050 reduction targets (80% below 1990 levels)? 6) What mitigation actions would be needed for CA to stay on the 2050 target (cap/trade, carbon tax, education, monitoring, incentives, funding [loans, grants], policy changes, and others)?
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