Assessment of China's Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Target for 2030: Possibility of Earlier Peaking

Abstract

Whether China's Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction target “to peak around 2030” is “fair, ambitious and adequate” or not depends on how much emphasis be placed on the historical responsibilities. However, China's peak in coal consumption may come earlier than expected, thereby advancing the peak of CO2 emission to come before 2030. In fact, the calculation based on the recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China released indicates that its coal consumption and CO2 emission (from fossil fuels) have almost flatted in 2014. Moreover, National Bureau of Statistics of China has upwardly adjusted the data for energy consumption and coal consumption in 2013, which led to confusion in its interpretation. Although it is difficult to say anything definite at this moment, the issue of upward adjustment of statistical data until 2013 and the recent declining trend of coal consumption and, possibly CO2 emission (from fossil fuels) can be discussed separately. All things considered, it seems more appropriate to assume that, in China, the coal consumption and CO2 emission are not likely to show significant increases in the future.