Calibration and evaluation of a CROPGRO Perennial Forage Model for Brachiaria humidicola yield simulation under future climate in subhumid environments of Ethiopia

Abstract

Crop simulation models can be employed to assess the impacts of climate change and aid in strategic planning and decision making regarding forage strategies. This study focused on calibrating and assessing the performance of the CROPGRO Perennial Forage Model in simulating Brachiaria humidicola yield under projected future climates for high and moderate representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios in the central and western subhumid regions of Ethiopia. The model was calibrated to accurately represent rainfed growth and biomass yield, using field data from the Debre Zeit and Bako Agricultural Research Centers. Climatic data, including rainfall, temperature and solar radiation, were sourced from weather stations, whereas future climate scenarios for the near future, mid-century and end-of-century periods were derived from the CORDEX Africa outputs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The calibration process refined species parameters related to vegetative partitioning, and enhanced the d-statistic and reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for herbage, leaf, stem and total biomass accumulation. Despite projected decreases in leaf biomass, stem biomass is projected to increase. In addition, there are projected increases in herbage and total biomass accumulation under elevated greenhouse gas concentrations and warmer temperatures. Ultimately, the projected climate under both RCPs had no significant effect on Brachiaria humidicola grass production in Ethiopia.