Calibrating Displacement Curves to Forecast Forced Migration due to Sea-Level Rise and Tropical Storms

Abstract

Coastal communities are expected to be highly exposed to rising sea levels and more frequent and intense tropical storms in the coming decades, with forced migration (or displacement) highly likely in many of these places. The exposure to these hazards is driven not just by climate change, but also by growing populations and rapid urbanisation of coastal cities. However, the extent of forced migration will be highly variable, and will be dependent on pre-existing physical and social vulnerabilities present in each location. Therefore, in order to reliably forecast future forced migration due to sea-level rise and tropical storms, it is necessary to construct spatially explicit displacement curves that link hazard levels to the migratory response of communities. This study has calibrated displacement curves through regression analysis for the Philippines based on historical internal migratory movements due to coastal flooding and tropical storms. The data for calibration was obtained from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre and governmental disaster reports, and the calibration was performed at the level 3 administrative boundaries. With the displacement curves, critical thresholds of flood and wind damage, at which point forced migration occurs, are identified. Subsequently, these displacement curves are combined with projections of future sea-levels and tropical storms in order to forecast the forced migration of communities under climate change. The displacement curves can be used by researchers, planners and policymakers to understand the varied migratory response of communities to sea-level rise and its associated hazards. This will allow for effective adaptation plans to be devised in advance in order to manage such forced migration in a manner that allows communities, including vulnerable ones, to relocate and avoid the adverse impacts of a changing climate.