Abstract
Introduction. Palliative and Hospice Care (PHC) in Ukraine is necessary for 300,000 patients (adults and children) whose lives are coming to an end due to incurable diseases. Ukraine is improving this area of medical care due to changes in funding. The issue of reliably predicting the need for PHC in adults and children remains unresolved. The aim. Check the forecast of the need for palliative and hospice care for 2021 and 2022, made according to the methodology of the Ukrainian Center for Public Data (2019), and determine the optimal method of refined trend forecasting to increase reliability in the conditions of a military crisis. Materials and methods. The forecasting was carried out using Microsoft Excel, the method of a creeping trend with a constant segment of smoothing, with a detail that allows you to determine the reliability of the forecast at the expense of a 95% confidence interval. The updated forecast takes into account migration processes in Ukraine during the war, including the impossibility of collecting medical statistics data in the temporarily occupied territories. Results. The calculation of the need for PHC for adults and children in 2021 and years has been carried out based on the available statistical data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Medical Statistic Service of Ukraine, national cancer and tuberculosis registries. Significant discrepancies were found between the calculated result and the forecast made before the war. The results of the forecast made in 2021 regarding the need for PHC of adults and children of Ukraine for 2021 and 2022 by the linear trend method are also compared with the results of the forecast by the creeping trend method with a constant smoothing segment. The latter was 4.70 times more accurate for adult palliative patients, and 1.25 times more accurate among palliative patients of all age categories. Conclusions. The tendency to decrease the need for PHC among both adults and children from the period 2018–2022 is maintained, which is associated with a decrease in the quality of data collection of medical statistics, and during the military crisis, also with significant migration processes and occupation of territories. Forecasting is necessary for further planning and financing of PHC and should be carried out on an ongoing basis. Methods for assessing the need for PHC need further improvement.
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