Abstract
An analytical expression is proposed for specifying atmospheric pressure in an idealized moving cyclone taking into account the existence of the cold front and the time evolution of cyclone intensity. Empirical parameters in this relation are determined for the most intense cyclone in the Baltic Sea region. The hydrodynamic model of the Baltic Sea with these parameters is used to evaluate extreme water levels in the eastern Gulf of Finland for different trajectories and propagation speeds of the cyclone. All results are obtained for the zero mean water level in the Baltic Sea.
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