Abstract
The future availability of mineral resources has attracted much attention; therefore, a quantitative evaluation of the potential impacts of resource use on future availability is important. Although the surplus cost model is often recommended among the existing endpoint characterization models of mineral resources, it has a shortcoming as it does not consider the changes in future primary resource use. This paper introduces a new characterization model considering future primary resource use changes, due to future changes in total demand and secondary resource use. Using material flow analysis, this study estimated time-series primary resource use for iron and copper for five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and a constant total demand scenario. New characterization factors, i.e., demand change-based surplus costs (DCSC), are calculated for each resource. In all of the SSPs, the calculated DCSCs are larger than the conventional surplus costs (SC) for both iron and copper. The DCSC, relative to the SC of copper, is larger than that of iron for all of the SSPs, which suggests that the potential impacts of copper use, relative to iron, will be underestimated, unless future primary resource use changes are considered. In calculating DCSC for other resources, it is important to choose an appropriate approach for forecasting future total demands.
Highlights
Mineral resources, including a variety of metals, are indispensable in modern life, and large amounts have been consumed
Since the constant total demand scenario considers future changes in secondary resource use and assumes constant total demand, the primary resource use of iron and copper will decrease as a result of an increase in secondary resource use, in the future
The results of this study are compared with those of Schneider et al [26,27], who developed the characterization model, taking into account the anthropogenic stock (AADP). These studies were chosen for comparison with this study because they focus on anthropogenic stock, which is partly similar to the focus of this study
Summary
Mineral resources, including a variety of metals, are indispensable in modern life, and large amounts have been consumed. In recent years, the global demand for mineral resources has increased markedly. Since mineral resources are non-renewable, their depletion and future availability have been of great research interest [2,3,4]. Metals do not physically disappear due to mining and use, and are rather accumulated (or sometimes dispersed) in society as “in-use stock”, which will partly become available as future secondary resources, due to their recycling. If secondary resources are used as substitutes for primary resources, it would diminish primary resource use. Primary resource use leads to an increase in the amount of in-use stock and will diminish the future primary resource use only if this in-use stock becomes a secondary resource source
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