Business surveys as a mirror of the economy: Germany and Russia

Abstract

Subject. The article addresses the business surveys conducted by the departments of the leading research institutes of Germany and Russia. Objectives. The aim is to investigate the specifics of survey statistics of the German IFO Institute for Economic Research and the Russian Economic Barometer, based on the analysis of relationship between surveys and forecasting, database parameters and main survey indicators. Methods. The study employs the methods of logical and statistical analysis. Results. We consider the main characteristics of respondent databases, the issues of using survey indicators to compile market forecasts, the dimension of databases (topics and levels of aggregation that determine the number of generated time series), analytical tools for market research, information and analytical publications, main indicators of survey statistics and the peculiarities of limitations to production. Conclusions. The paper reveals the main differences between the business surveys of the Russian Economic Barometer and the surveys of the IFO Institute. The most important achievement of the IFO Institute is the development of the main indicator, which became the basis for reliable market forecasting in Germany – the Business Climate Index, calculated on the basis of the Present Situation Index and the index of business expectations for six months in advance. For successful development of entrepreneurial surveys in Russia, it is necessary to take into account the German experience, which has received wide international recognition.