Abstract
Non-technical summaryThe El Niño event in 2015/2016 was one of the strongest since at least 1950. Through surveys and interviews with key informants, we found businesses in the capital cities of Zambia, Botswana and Kenya experienced major disruption to their activities from El Niño related hydroelectric load shedding, water supply disruption and flooding, respectively. Yet, during the 2015/2016 El Niño, fluctuations in precipitation were not extreme considering the strength of the El Niño event. Results therefore highlight that even fairly moderate precipitation anomalies can contribute to major disruption to economic activity. Addressing the risk of disruption – and supporting the private sector to adapt – is a development priority.
Highlights
In Lusaka and Gaborone, MSMEs reported the worst disruption occurred between August and December 2015, while in Nairobi, MSME managers indicated heavy precipitation resulted in mild impacts during the short rains, with a second mild to moderate impact peak in April and May 2016, during the long rains (Figure 2)
This paper highlights some of the important, but underrecognized consequences for economic activity associated with a major El Niño event and contributes to a range of literatures on: El Niño impact pathways in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); micro-economic impacts of flooding, water supply disruption and load shedding; and MSME adaptation behaviour in the face of a range of hydrological hazards
In Zambia, for example, it is thought that load shedding was exacerbated by factors including underinvestment and diminishing capacity in Zambia’s energy sector to meet increasing demand over decades, alongside continuing high abstraction in the face of declining lake levels and other recent changes in exposure, sensitivity and water management (Siderius et al, 2018)
Summary
The 2015/2016 El Niño in southern and eastern Africa. El Niño teleconnections – warm phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – present every 2–7 years on average. The spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation anomalies associated with phases of ENSO are well established at global scales (Ropelewski & Halpert, 1987) and ENSO teleconnections are strongly manifest in Africa, representing the dominant mode of interannual climate variability over eastern and southern Africa (Nicholson & Kim, 1997). El Niño teleconnections tend to be associated with below normal precipitation in parts of southern Africa (during the wet season from November to March) and above average precipitation in eastern Africa
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