Abstract
The present paper addresses the problem of determining the bus fleet composition (size and mix) for a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) transportation service, where revenue, demand, and passenger-km index are considered for a sensitivity analysis. The proposed method relies on financial engineering methods to produce several cost and income inputs over time by applying Net Present Value (NPV) concepts. The sensitivity analysis is developed by solving different instances with a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model structured as an investment selection problem. The model is capable of determining the optimal size and mix selection under relevant operational requirements as restrictions. The method is applied for a case study in Mexico Valley Metropolitan Zone (MVMZ), illustrating the valuable insights obtained with the sensitivity analysis (response surface exploration) and providing the set of potential solutions and their estimated financial and operational outcomes, information that is relevant for potential operators to endorse a discussion and negotiation with the government authorities (concessioners).
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