Burned and Blinded: Escalation Risks of Intelligence Loss from Countercyber Operations in Crisis

Abstract

As the limitations of purely defensive cyber operations continue to be demonstrated in the continuing pressure of hostile cyberthreats, the U.S. government has introduced new doctrine to shape countercyber operations (CCO) leveraging offensive options to degrade threat capabilities and infrastructure. Planners have only begun to understand the broader implications of these new concepts in difficult periods of crisis. The article explores the parallels to other strategic early warning and intelligence capabilities, surfacing distinctions based on the unique dynamics of cyberconflict to identify scenarios in which CCO successes may prove potentially destabilizing and lead to greater escalation risk.