Foresight and the Future of Crime: Advancing Environmental Scanning Approaches

Abstract

This chapter introduces the environmental scanning and Early Warning Systems (EWS) framework for crime detection and prevention in a predictive policing context using foresight methodologies such as weak signals, facilitating factors, horizon scanning, and leading indicators. The philosophy of the environmental scanning system is based on the principle that crime is a business and thus can be analysed in much the same way as a business. As such, both PESTLE and SWOT analyses can be part of the assessment of Organised Crime Group (OCG) activities. For law enforcement to combat crime, an efficient and effective environmental scanning system that utilises strategic early warning is necessary. The strategic early warning system takes into account the STARC criteria (Specificity, Timeliness, Accuracy, Relevance and Clarity), acknowledging bias in the system and ensuring that the number of false alarms stay at a minimum. This chapter consists of three parts. First, the analysis begins by exploring the ‘environmental scanning’ dimensions of foresight, relating to the future of crime. Second, the analysis continues by examining a series of models relevant to undertaking environmental scanning. Third, the chapter finishes with some overall conclusions, which bring together several of the foresight and future crime-related insights examined throughout.