Bulanık Mantık Yaklaşımı Kullanılarak Kızılırmak Nehri Aylık Ortalama Akımlarının Tahmini

Abstract

River flow values are used in the design and operation of hydraulic structures. Determining the correct flow value is important in terms of controlling water movements in the operation of hydraulic structures, irrigation of agricultural lands, hydroelectric production, environmental protection and flood control. In the literature, different methods are used to predict possible river flows using the available data. The fuzzy logic approach is a kind of intelligent system method used in solving problems involving uncertainty. The method has been widely used in the modeling of hydrological data for 2000’s. In this study, the fuzzy logic method was applied to estimate the flow data of Yamula Station on the Kızılırmak River in the Kızılırmak basin, one of the largest basins in Turkey. In addition to these flow station data, the monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation data of the Kayseri meteorology station, which affects the station flows, were also used for modeling. Three different models were created for the flow estimates. In these models, temperature and precipitation data were selected as input values and river flow data were chosen as output values. In the models, 1982-2012 data of the stations were used. Model output data were tested with data set of 2013, 2014 and 2015. As a result, it has been seen that the fuzzy logic approach gave healthy results when both temperature and precipitation data were used as inputs.