Abstract
Cotton production is highly vulnerable to climate change, and heat stress is a major constraint in the cotton zone of Punjab, Pakistan. Adaptation is perceived as a critical step to deal with forecasted and unexpected climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to standardize and authenticate a cotton crop model based on climate and crop husbandry data in order to develop an adaptation package for cotton crop production in the wake of climate change. For the study, the data were collected from the cotton-growing areas of Punjab, viz. Bahawalpur and Khanewal. After the calibration and validation against field data, the Cropping System Model CSM–CROPGRO–Cotton in the shell of the decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT) was run with a future climate generated under two representative concentrations pathways (RCPs), viz. RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 with five global circulation models (GCMs). The whole study showed that a model is an artistic tool for examining the temporal variation in cotton and determining the potential impact of planting dates on crop growth, phenology, and yield. The results showed that the future climate would have drastic effects on cotton production in the project area. Reduction in seed cotton yield (SCY) was 25.7% and 32.2% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The comparison of five GCMs showed that a hot/wet climate would be more damaging than other scenarios. The simulations with different production options showed that a 10% and 5% increase in nitrogen and plant population, respectively, compared to the present would be the best strategy in the future. The model further suggested that planting conducted 15 days earlier, combined with the use of water and nitrogen (fertigation), would help to improve yield with 10% less water under the future climate. Overall, the proposed adaptation package would help to recover 33% and 37% of damages in SCY due to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed package would also help the farmers increase crop yield by 7.5% over baseline (current) yield.
Highlights
Agriculture is highly dependent on climate and, climate change could have major effects on crop yields and food and fiber supply
The results showed that the package will help the farmers increase crop yield 7.5% over baseline yield and help recover 37% of the damages due to climate change representative concentrations pathways (RCPs) 8.5 projections (Table 16)
Crop Growth (CROPGRO)-Cotton in the shell of decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT) has been tested by researchers for the growth and yield simulation of crops sown under different climatic conditions with different crop management practices [13,25,33,34,35]
Summary
Agriculture is highly dependent on climate and, climate change could have major effects on crop yields and food and fiber supply. It is anticipated that the adverse impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector will exacerbate the incidence of rural poverty. The impacts on poverty are likely to be especially severe in developing countries such as Pakistan, where the agricultural sector is an important source of livelihood for a majority of the rural farming community. The impacts of climate change for Pakistan’s farmers are likely to be problematic for the food security of many rural households. Pakistan is expected to be one of the countries most affected by climate change in South Asia [2].
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