Building an Additive Model for Determining the Seasonal Effect on the Quantity of Products Supplied by the Chemical Industry Enterprises

Abstract

The urgency of the problem under study is due to the need to improve the efficiency of the activities of industrial enterprises operating in constantly changing conditions. Chemical industry enterprises are enterprises with seasonal demand for products, especially in the production of mineral fertilizers. At the same time, they often face the problem of a large number of defective products and significant transportation costs. In addition, enterprises are forced to store significant volumes of purchased products. This problem arises because of inaccurate forecasts of demand and volumes of raw materials ordered from suppliers [11]. One of the ways to reduce costs is to determine the optimal number of deliveries of inventory items [3]. The purpose of the article is to develop an additive model for determining the seasonal effect on the quantity of products supplied to the chemical industry. The leading method of research is a statistical method for determining the seasonality index, which made it possible to create a trend equation that reflects the average monthly supply of raw materials and the growth rate in each month of the study period. The main results of the article: seasonality indices were determined, the seasonal component of the additive model of product supply by chemical industry enterprises was evaluated. Materials of the article can be useful for any business entities that operate in conditions of seasonal demand. The results will allow to make a forecast of the optimal number of deliveries.