Build on Past Successes, Tackle Long-Term Challenges

Abstract

D espite accusations that it ignored the region in order to focus on the Middle East and terrorism, the Bush administration actually devoted substantial attention to Asia, achieving some notable results. Relations with China are at a high point. The United States has bolstered its alliance with Japan and embarked on a new era of strategic cooperation with India. After several years of tension, relations with South Korea appear to be back on track. Both the nuclear stand-off with North Korea and the delicate situation in the Taiwan Strait look less prone to explode than they did only a few years ago. While it inherits a region, and a policy, in reasonably good order, the new administration will have to work hard to prevent its predecessor’s achievements in Asia from unraveling. The new president will also have to address some difficult long-term issues that have not yet been fully faced. Continued Sino-U.S. amity is by no means assured. In the near term the greatest threats to good relations will be economic rather than strategic. A protracted global recession may lead to heightened protectionist pressure from Congress. If the new president fails to resist, simmering trade tensions between the two Pacific powers could easily boil over. Despite the recent reduction in open hostility, the China-Taiwan issue is also far from settled. Taiwan’s newly elected president has shown a willingness to talk with China, but given the divisions among his own people he is unlikely to be able to make the concessions the mainland desires. If China’s leaders anticipate an early diplomatic breakthrough, they are destined for disappointment. Assuming that the new U.S. administration follows through on the long-standing commitment to supply Taiwan with