Budget Processes Modeling: Agent-Based Approach

Abstract

The financial and economic crisis caused by anti-Russian sanctions and geopolitical tensions necessitates an increase in budget expenditures at all levels, in connection with which the issues of improving the fiscal system and reorganizing interbudgetary relations are being updated. To develop plans for adapting to current challenges, achieving the goals of fiscal stability and improving economic performance, transformations in the field of budget processes, the implementation of an effective fiscal policy, and a rethinking of the principles of fiscal federalism are necessary. Achieving this goals predetermines the need to use flexible budget analysis tools, such as agent-based modeling, which allows to reproduce the multi-level structure of the country's economy and budget system, as well as simulate complex budget processes. The article presents an overview of agent-based models developed by foreign and Russian researchers that reproduce various aspects of budgetary processes. The analysis of the architecture of models was carried out and the conceptual ideas of building models in accordance with the types of agents, their behavioral algorithms, as well as the goals of simulation modeling were considered. The expediency and efficiency of using the agent-based approach for modeling complex budgetary processes is substantiated. The analysis carried out in the article allows us to conclude that the agent-based simulation approach is successfully used for the following purposes: testing variable strategies for reforming budgetary processes, predicting the consequences of implementing fiscal policy, choosing the optimal strategy aimed at achieving budgetary self-sufficiency of the regions, as well as creating tools for assessing the effective allocation of budgetary funds to achieve target variables. The results of the study are proposed to be used for agent-based modeling of sanctions effects and search for strategies for reforming the fiscal system in order to counter the financial and economic crisis.