Briefing:Western Sahara: road to perdition?

Abstract

AT THE TIME OF WRITING,1 HOPES FOR A PEACEFUL SOLUTION to the enduring conflict of the Western Sahara are evaporating. If there is no plausible advance in the peace process before the end of 2004, the UNbrokered ceasefire between Morocco and the POLISARIO Front could come to a dramatic end. The last extension of the mandate of MINURSO, the international force supervising the truce in Western Sahara since 1991, expires in October. What will happen then is unclear, but all the signs point to a worrying panorama. Morocco would be moderately satisfied to maintain the current situation of the territory, most of which is under its de facto control. However, the POLISARIO Front, under growing pressure from its militants, is not in a position to accept a new extension of the ceasefire under the current circumstances. Mohamed Yeslem, Ambassador of the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) in Algiers, was clear when indicating that 'if [in October 2004] Morocco continues considering that the self-determination referendum is a dead option, then it will be necessary to declare implicitly that the current ceasefire has also finished'.2 The forthcoming months are therefore not only crucial for the resolution of the last decolonization conflict in Africa but also, arguably, for the stability of the whole Maghreb region. In the following pages, I shall briefly explain the background to the situation in Western Sahara by outlining major developments in the conflict in recent years, the Baker Plan II and, finally, the perspectives for the future. Morocco and Mauritania occupied the former Spanish colony of Western Sahara in 1975, despite the protests of the United Nations and the guerrilla resistance of a nationalist Saharawi movement, the POLISARIO Front, backed by Algeria. Mauritania was unable to sustain the war against the POLISARIO Front and pulled out in 1979, recognizing officially in 1984 the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), the Saharawi state founded by the POLISARIO in February 1976.3 The war against Morocco lasted until 1991, when the UN brokered a peace agreement, known as the Settlement Plan, based on previous negotiations initiated by the Organization