Briefing: Updates on Arctic Ocean ice graphs for 2016/2017 indicate very short timescales

Abstract

Current data on the loss of the Arctic ice caps continues to show that first total ice-melt can be expected around the summer of 2021, with total year-round loss by 2040. Recent dramatic falls in the winter ice volumes now mirror the summer declines and as the world temperature reaches 1·5°C of warming, time appears to be running out for the optimistic reversals expected by official climate models. These regular briefings on the timescales should in theory maximise the warnings needed for preparations, as the forward planning requirements are particularly pertinent for the civil engineering profession. The urgency is, however, still far from being acknowledged. Despite recent complacency by many over tipping points, the significance of these data cannot be over-emphasised. Previous papers have reported a unique set of reasonable yet shocking warnings by engineers for engineers, using opinions about climate effects collected at professional seminars since 2008 (e.g. 20% of the world population will need to move once 2°C of warming is reached). These suggest probabilities and hazards to life are several orders of magnitude worse than would normally be acceptable without major intervention