Abstract
BackgroundAmidst the rising breast cancer burden in Asia, we aim to predict the future mortality risk due to breast cancer and identify the risk-attributable deaths for breast cancer among East and South Asian countries.MethodsWe used country-level data to predict the trends in the next decade relating to female breast cancer mortality by employing data from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used the stochastic mortality modeling and prediction techniques to forecast the age-specific and risk-attributable breast cancer mortality trends at the regional and national levels of East and South Asia.ResultsThe number of deaths caused by the breast cancer is predicted to increase in East and South Asian countries in the next decade (2020–2030). Age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of breast cancer is predicted to increase by 7.0% from 9.20/100,000 (95% CI: 6.04–12.12) in 1990 to 9.88/100,000 (95% CI: 7.12–11.4) in 2030 in East Asia, and about 35% increase from 13.4/100,000 (95% CI: 9.21–16.02) in 1990 to 18.1/100,000 (95% CI: 13.23–21.10) in 2030 in South Asia. At the national level, the highest percent change in ASDR between 1990 and 2030 was reported in Pakistan (a 62% increase) and Nepal (a 47% increase). The highest percent change in breast cancer mortality between 2020 and 2030 for females of age group 80–84 years was observed in Pakistan [21.6, (95% CI, 20.6–94.7)], followed by Afghanistan [13.3 (4.0–80.8)], and Nepal [36.6 (11.1–125.7)] as compared to the other countries. In the females of aged 50–80 years, the predicted death rates were associated with high body mass index, high-fasting plasma glucose, and diet high in red meat, across the majority of countries under study. Furthermore, reductions in percent change in mortality rates occurred in several countries with increases in sociodemographic index (SDI), notably across high SDI countries.ConclusionBreast cancer mortality risk varies substantially across East and South Asian countries with higher mortality risk in low/middle SDI countries. Early detection using screening, awareness among females and health workers, and cost-effective and timely treatment of patients with breast cancer is vital in stemming the tide of breast cancer in the next decade.
Highlights
Developing countries and countries undergoing a westernized lifestyle in Asia may be facing a breast cancer epidemic in the near future due to rising breast cancer cases and deaths [1, 2]
We examine the geographical disparities in breast cancer mortality at the regional and national levels of East and South Asia, from 1990 to 2019 for women aged 20–84 years
Applying Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) to the matrix Mx,t, we obtained an explained variance of 83.2, 82.8, 81.7, 90.9, 94, 73.9, 85.5, 74.5, 96.8, 94.5, 89, and 76% by fitted LC model for East Asia, China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Mongolia, South Asia, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh, respectively. These results indicate that the LC model fitted breast cancer-related mortality data reasonably well
Summary
Developing countries and countries undergoing a westernized lifestyle in Asia may be facing a breast cancer epidemic in the near future due to rising breast cancer cases and deaths [1, 2]. In Asia, breast cancer is the most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths among women, with Asia accounting for 39% of all breast cancer incident cases diagnosed globally [2]. This rising breast cancer mortality across Asia is posing stress on the oncologic system and hampering an individual’s quality of life [2]. Amidst the rising breast cancer burden in Asia, we aim to predict the future mortality risk due to breast cancer and identify the risk-attributable deaths for breast cancer among East and South Asian countries
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