Evaluation of lifestyle risk factor differences in global patterns of breast cancer mortality and DALYs during 1990-2017 using hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis.

Abstract

Statistical evidence on breast cancer (BC) burden related to health and lifestyle risk factors are valuable for health policy-making. This study aimed to compare the trends in BC mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to various health and life style risk factors among different world's regions according to sociodemographic index (SDI). We extracted the age-standardized and age-specific rate of mortality and DALYs of women BC during 1990-2017 using the comparative risk assessment framework of the 2017 global burden of disease (GBD) study. We performed hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis to estimate age- and time-related trends, and effect of interactions between different risk factors on BC risk. During 1990-2017, the age-standardized rate of mortality and DALYs of women BC was increasing in less developed and under developing regions. The risk factor alcohol use [RR 51.3(95%CI 17.6-149.7)] and smoking [5.9(2.0-17.3)] were significantly highly contributor to increased mortality risk in high SDI region. Whereas in the low-SDI region, the greater mortality risk was observed in alcohol use [6.9(2.4-17)] and high FPG [2.7(1.5-3.1)]-related deaths. The adjusting for individualage, period, and risk factor effects, the significant interaction effect between metabolic risk factors and older ages were observed in all SDI regions and globally as well. However, an increasing cohort effect of alcohol, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and smoking-related death, and DALYs was observed during 1960 to 1985 cohorts among low-SDI regions. The age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs due to BC has been increasing in low-SDI region. Alcohol consumption, high body mass index (BMI), high FPG, and smoking are potential BC risk factors particularly in older ages that leading to adverse disease outcomes. Therefore, rapid aging and prevalence of these prospective risk factors may strengthen the increasing mortality and DALYs of BC in low-SDI region. Hence, preventive measure along with strict action against concerned BC risk factors should be taken to reduce the disease burden specifically among lower-SDI regions.