Breaks and Convergence in U.S. Regional Crime Rates: Analysis of Their Presence and Implications

Steve Cook,Duncan Watson

doi:10.3390/socsci2030180

Abstract

The literature examining the relative properties of U.S. regional crime rates is extended. Using a novel method, convergence in alternative classifications of crime is detected over the period 1965 to 2009. Subsequent statistical analysis identifies distinct epochs in the evolution of crime which match those noted anecdotally in the literature. The findings concerning convergence within these epochs prove interesting, with results found to vary both between the alternative crime classifications and through time. In particular, evidence of divergence is noted which contrasts starkly with other results for earlier and later periods. Potential explanations for the observed results, their importance for policy and their implications for theory and future research are discussed.

Highlights

Recent research in the criminology literature has concerned the extent to which there is a ‘national trend’ present in geographically disaggregated crime rates in the United States of America.1 Clearly the extent to which regional crime rate data exhibit similarities has implications for both whether crime fighting policies should operate at a national or regional level, and the relativeIt should be noted that the term ‘trend’ is clearly not being used here in its statistical sense, but rather refers to a shared pattern or similarity.Soc
The calculated -statistics and their corresponding two-sided p-values obtained from analysis of the full sample of observations (1965–2009) are presented in Table 2.2 The immediately apparent feature of these results is that overwhelming evidence of convergence is present with all classifications returning test statistics which are of the required sign for convergence and statistically significant
The current analysis has revisited the issue of convergence in U.S crime rates, extending the existing literature in two regards

Summary

Introduction

Recent research in the criminology literature has concerned the extent to which there is a ‘national trend’ present in geographically disaggregated crime rates in the United States of America. Clearly the extent to which regional crime rate data exhibit similarities (or differences) has implications for both whether crime fighting policies should operate at a national or regional level, and the relative. To explore the issue of a potential similarity in crime rates, a range of approaches has been considered including consideration of potential similarities between crime and its possible explanatory factors across alternative regions (see [1,2]), the extent to which modelling methods capture similar properties in city-level homicide rates ([3,4]) and ranking and correlation analyses of state level crime data [5,6] Beyond these studies, an interesting difference in the stance taken towards the issue of a national trend is provided by the studies of [7,8]. It is possible that studies which have utilised national level data may have missed potential variation, and information, present in disaggregated series This point is recognised by [7] where the extent to which a national trend exists in U.S crime rates, and the this issue is of relevance, is considered. In the present study the issue of convergence is revisited, with the seminal analysis of [8] extended using an alternative more informative statistical method and consideration of sub-samples relating to perceived differing eras in the evolution of criminal activity

Data and the Samples

A Probabilistic Approach to the Analysis of Convergence

Results

Concluding Remarks