Abstract
IntroductionAssessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines on controlling the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is key for each government to optimize the anti-contagion policy according to their situation.MethodsWe proposed the Braking Force Model on Virus Transmission to evaluate the validity and efficiency of NPIs and vaccines. This model classified the NPIs and the administration of vaccines at different effectiveness levels and forecasted the duration required to control the pandemic, providing an indication of the future trends of the pandemic wave.ResultsThis model was applied to study the effectiveness of the most commonly used NPIs according to the historic pandemic waves in different countries and regions. It was found that when facing an outbreak, only strict lockdown would give efficient control of the pandemic; the other NPIs were insufficient to promptly and effectively reduce virus transmission. Meanwhile, our results showed that NPIs would likely only slow down the pandemic’s progression and maintain a low transmission level but fail to eradicate the disease. Only vaccination would likely have had a better chance of success in ending the pandemic.DiscussionBased on the Braking Force Model, a pandemic control strategy framework has been devised for policymakers to determine the commencement and duration of appropriate interventions, with the aim of obtaining a balance between public health risk management and economic recovery.
Highlights
Assessing the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines on controlling the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is key for each government to optimize the anticontagion policy according to their situation
We studied the data of five countries (Supplymenatary Table S1, available in http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/) and classified the effectiveness of lockdown on controlling COVID-19 as Level A, with an average prediction of t30% of approximately 23 days
It is recommended that the lockdown policy should continue until it meets this 5% parameter, i.e., when the current pandemic wave is under control
Summary
Assessing the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines on controlling the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is key for each government to optimize the anticontagion policy according to their situation. Every country is currently taking various measures to combat the spread of this disease. Eradication of this virus or stopping its transmission has been a challenging task. Evidence has shown herd immunity is unlikely to be achieved without intervention or vaccination [2,3,4]. With the increase of daily new cases [5] and the lag in the production of antibodies by the vaccine and their uncertain effectiveness, it is urgent to first control the spread of COVID-19 via non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). NPIs that limit social contact and enable continuance of protective behaviors, such as social distancing, night curfews, mask requirements, and area lockdowns, can help curb the pandemic until vaccines are rolled out [6,7,8,9]
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