Quantifying the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical and Pharmaceutical Interventions Against Covid-19 Epidemic in the Republic of Korea: Mathematical Model-Based Approach Considering Age Groups and the Delta Variant

Abstract

Early vaccination efforts and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were insufficient to prevent a surge of COVID-19 cases triggered by the Delta variant. A compartment model that includes age, vaccination, and variants was developed. We estimated the transmission rates using maximum likelihood estimation, and phase-dependent NPIs according to government policies from 26 February to 8 October 2021. Simulations were done to examine the effects of varying dates of initiation and intensity of eased NPIs, arrival timing of Delta, and speed of vaccine administration. The estimated transmission rate matrices show distinct patterns, with transmission rates of younger groups (0-39 years) much larger with Delta. Social distancing (SD) level 2 and SD4 in Korea were associated with transmission reduction factors of 0.63-0.70 and 0.70-0.78, respectively. The easing of NPIs to a level comparable to SD2 should be initiated not earlier than 16 October to keep the number of severe cases below Korea’s healthcare capacity. Simulations showed that a surge prompted by Delta can be prevented if the number of people vaccinated daily or SD level when Delta arrived was higher. The timing of easing, intensity of NPIs, vaccination speed, and screening measures are key factors in preventing another epidemic wave.