Bounded rationality consensus reaching process with prospect theory and preventing individual weight manipulation for multi-attribute group decision making

Abstract

Owing to the development and popularization of social media, multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) adopting social network analysis (SNA) has appealed to widespread focus for a few years. However, most existing research on SNA has not simultaneously considered the expert's weight manipulation behavior and bounded rationality during the consensus-reaching process (CRP). To overcome this limitation, an original consensus model predicated on prospect theory (PT) and preventing individual weight manipulation is proposed in this paper. First, the experts’ behavior under certain risks is characterized by using PT, where a dynamic reference point is proposed to provide a more objective description of the experts’ psychological behavior. Then, the PT is integrated into the CRP, and the three-level prospect consensus measurement and a three-stage feedback identification mechanism are investigated. Subsequently, to safeguard against individual weight manipulation and obtain the appropriate expert weights, a feedback model incorporating minimum adjustment and maximum entropy rooted in PT is developed. This model is established from the perspectives of “efficiency” and “equity.” At last, the proposed method is applied to evaluate low-carbon investment projects in a power generation enterprise to verify its effectiveness and applicability. The superiority and robustness of the proposed method are also demonstrated through comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis.