Bootstrap confidence limits for groundfish trawl survey estimates of mean abundance

Abstract

Trawl surveys using stratified random designs are widely used on the east coast of North America to monitor groundfish populations. Statistical quantities estimated from these surveys are derived via a randomization basis and do not require that a probability model be postulated for the data. However, the large sample properties of these estimates may not be appropriate for the small sample sizes and skewed data characteristic of bottom trawl surveys. In this paper, three bootstrap resampling strategies that incorporate complex sampling designs are used to explore the properties of estimates for small sample situations. A new form for the bias-corrected and accelerated confidence intervals is introduced for stratified random surveys. Simulation results indicate that the bias-corrected and accelerated confidence limits may overcorrect for the trawl survey data and that percentile limits were closer to the expected values. Nonparametric density estimates were used to investigate the effects of unusually large catches of fish on the bootstrap estimates and confidence intervals. Bootstrap variance estimates decreased as increasingly smoother distributions were assumed for the observations in the stratum with the large catch. Lower confidence limits generally increased with increasing smoothness but the upper bound depended upon assumptions about the shape of the distribution.