Boosting the Understanding and Approval of Anti-Corona Measures-Reducing Exponential Growth Bias and its Effects through Educational Nudges.

Abstract

One major problem of compliance with anti‐coronavirus measures originates from the so‐called exponential growth bias, i.e. the cognitive distortion of systematically underestimating exponential growth and its consequences. We replicate an Amazon MTurk experiment regarding the spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 that was conducted in the general US population during the first wave of the pandemic in March 2020 dealing with this bias. Using a least‐likely‐design‐approach, we find a similarly strong bias in our sample of German students in November 2020. Nevertheless, this bias can be reduced by one simple educational intervention. Furthermore, participants who received these educational nudges showed a considerably higher approval rating for contact restrictions. This effect is robust to different analytical techniques and the inclusion of controls. Complementing political statements about the exponential spread of the virus – which often only mention the name of the phenomenon – with simple educational nudges could help the public better understand the need for encroachments on personal liberties.