Black walnut plantations in West Virginia: Maximizing financial returns through decision modeling and cash flow analysis

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to identify the management strategies that lead to maximum financial returns from a black walnut plantation. To evaluate a selection of plantation establishment scenarios, thinning treatments, and product objectives, an Excel-based black walnut financial model was updated and revised. Key updates to the model included incorporating three cash flows for 1) the collection and wholesale of black walnut sap, 2) producing black walnut syrup, and 3) leasing black walnut trees for tapping. Additionally, outputs from the Forest Vegetation Simulator were integrated into the model’s growth and yield projections as a means of more accurately projecting sawtimber, nut, and sap yields over a 70-year period. Financial criteria including Net Present Value (NPV), Equivalent Annual Income (EAI), Benefit/Cost Ratio (BCR), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) were calculated for a range of scenarios; NPV and IRR were used to rank each scenario. A discounted cash flow analysis was then performed, as well as sensitivity analyses to determine the impact of receiving cost-share funds, increasing plantation acreage and stumpage value, and adjusting the discount rate. Of the scenarios examined, NPV ranking indicated that the highest net returns are achieved by planting on 8 x 8 foot spacing without thinning, and gaining revenue through timber sales, nut harvesting, and leasing taps. The greatest losses were seen when planting on 8 x 8 foot spacing without thinning, but pursuing revenue through nut harvesting and wholesaling collected sap.