Bismarck or Wilhelm? China’s Peaceful Rise vs. Its South China Sea Policy

Abstract

The choice facing China today is whether it will follow the precedent set by Otto von Bismarck—which appears to be its stated goal—or whether it will (intentionally or unintentionally) follow the path of another German leader, Kaiser Wilhelm, and pursue a policy of military growth, territorial and/or maritime expansionism, and a relative disregard for the concerns of its neighbors. The South China Sea will be an important test case, an arena where China’s choices will impact its relations with its neighbors and other great powers like the United States.