Abstract
Excessive production of biomass, in times of intensification of agriculture and climate change, is again becoming one of the biggest environmental issues. Identification of sources and effects of this phenomenon in a river catchment in the space–time continuum has been supported by advanced environmental modules combined on a digital platform (Macromodel DNS/SWAT). This tool enabled the simulation of nutrient loads and chlorophyll “a” for the Nielba River catchment (central-western Poland) for the biomass production potential (defined here as a TN:TP ratio) analysis. Major differences have been observed between sections of the Nielba River with low biomass production in the upper part, controlled by TN:TP ratios over 65, and high chlorophyll “a” concentrations in the lower part, affected by biomass transport for the flow-through lakes. Under the long and short-term RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, this pattern will be emphasized. The obtained results showed that unfavorable biomass production potential will be maintained in the upper riverine sections due to a further increase in phosphorus loads induced by precipitation growth. Precipitation alone will increase biomass production, while precipitation combined with temperature can even enhance this production in the existing hot spots.
Highlights
The biomass overproduction problem has been attracting the attention of the scientific community for several decades,[1−5] which resulted in numerous studies, mainly on nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, and their mutual relationship implicating eutrophication processes.[6−9] Along with a better understanding of causes and effects behind this phenomenon, development of environmental models took place, enabling simulation of current and future changes in aquatic nutrient issues.[10−13] these modeling efforts have been mainly focused on lakes and reservoirs,[14−20] while neglecting, to a large extent, eutrophication processes in riverine ecosystems.[21−23] Numerical simulations of nutrient loads and concentrations of chlorophyll “a” in flowing surface waters are still very rare
their interdependence (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads have been displayed for the entire Nielba River data set
The average monthly nutrient load predictions in the Macromodel DNS/SWAT for the Nielba River sub-basins for 2005−2007 have been presented in Table 1 and in the Mendeley Data.[73]
Summary
The biomass overproduction problem has been attracting the attention of the scientific community for several decades,[1−5] which resulted in numerous studies, mainly on nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, and their mutual relationship implicating eutrophication processes.[6−9] Along with a better understanding of causes and effects behind this phenomenon, development of environmental models took place, enabling simulation of current and future changes in aquatic nutrient issues.[10−13] these modeling efforts have been mainly focused on lakes and reservoirs,[14−20] while neglecting, to a large extent, eutrophication processes in riverine ecosystems.[21−23] Numerical simulations of nutrient loads and concentrations of chlorophyll “a” in flowing surface waters are still very rare. The main source of information on this topic is comprehensive research conducted on river basins in South Korea,[17,19,23−30] and individual publications from other regions of the world.[21,31−33] These studies clearly show that one of the promising methods to understand complex interactions influencing biomass production in rivers may be the use of environmental models, such as ANNs,[24] QUALKO2,34 Hidden Markov Model (MHMM),[29] or SWAT.[33] the combined capabilities of different models are increasingly used[35,36] as well as artificial neural networks[37] or machine learning methods.[38] the influence of factors, such as surface runoff or future changes in temperature and precipitation, is rarely taken into account. There is a justified risk of altering biomass production in river basins.[39,40]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
