Bioenergy potential from agricultural by-product in 2030: An AI-based spatial analysis and climate change scenarios in a Chinese region

Abstract

Addressing the pressing need for sustainable bioenergy sources amid the growing climate crisis, this study investigates potential crop bioenergy output in the Jianghan Plain, Hubei, China. The research leverages Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network models to predict the accumulated net primary productivity (NPP) of various crops, i.e., single rice, double rice, maize, and wheat, in Jianghan Plain. The models highlight a strong predictive performance, with the SE model achieving an R2 of 0.83 and wheat model an R2 of 0.90, implying these models can be utilized reliably for future NPP forecasting. Our evaluation of past and future NPP values reveals a negative correlation between the increase in NPP values and observed temperature trends. This emphasizes the significant impact of temperature on crop bioenergy potential. For future NPP predictions, scenario (S3a) under Temperature Control strategies at medium-effort mitigation yields a favourable outcome for all crops, particularly SE. Additionally, the results suggest that aggressive decarbonization and global warming mitigation strategies are vital for enhancing NPP values. However, the study also highlights potential trade-offs and stresses the necessity for region-specific climate reconciliation strategies; for instance, midland counties benefit from temperature control, whereas the sideline favours CO2 mitigation. The study further investigates the spatial distribution of potential bioenergy, with the southwestern part of the plain holding more bioenergy potential, providing an essential reference for future energy planning. By 2030, in Jianghan Plain, when fully integrated with reasonable climate responses, there could be substantial bioenergy potential from crop residues reaching (1.2–1.9) × 109 MJ, which is 11% less than the current.