Bioenergy futures in Sweden – Modeling integration scenarios for biofuel production

Martin Börjesson Hagberg,Karin Pettersson,Erik O Ahlgren

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2016.04.044

Martin Börjesson Hagberg, Karin Pettersson + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.04.044

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Abstract

Use of bioenergy can contribute to greenhouse gas emission reductions and increased energy security. However, even though biomass is a renewable resource, the potential is limited, and efficient use of available biomass resources will become increasingly important. This paper aims to explore system interactions related to future bioenergy utilization and cost-efficient bioenergy technology choices under stringent CO2 constraints. In particular, the study investigates system effects linked to integration of advanced biofuel production with district heating and industry under different developments in the electricity sector and biomass supply system. The study is based on analysis with the MARKAL_Sweden model, which is a bottom-up, cost-optimization model covering the Swedish energy system. A time horizon to 2050 is applied. The results suggest that system integration of biofuel production has noteworthy effects on the overall system level, improves system cost-efficiency and influences parameters such as biomass price, marginal CO2 emission reduction costs and cost-efficient biofuel choices in the transport sector. In the long run and under stringent CO2 constraints, system integration of biofuel production has, however, low impact on total bioenergy use, which is largely decided by supply-related constraints, and on total transport biofuel use, which to large extent is driven by demand.

Highlights

An increased share of renewable energy in the energy system is critical to mitigate climate change as well as to handle other energy-related environmental challenges
We study the effects on relevant result parameters with focus on: total biomass utilization, production/use of biofuels, production of biomass-based electricity, and shadow prices for biomass and CO2
Under the assumption of stringent CO2 constraints we investigate the influence of two diverging developments (“yes” or “no”) for each of these five factors

Summary

Introduction

An increased share of renewable energy in the energy system is critical to mitigate climate change as well as to handle other energy-related environmental challenges. Bioenergy is currently the largest source of renewable energy [21], and a further future increase in bioenergy demand is likely with increasingly ambitious climate and energy security targets. Even though biomass is a renewable resource, the annual potential is limited due to land scarcity. Efficient use of available biomass resources will be increasingly important. Currently at the stage of research and development or early commercialization, have the ability to significantly increase the value and efficiency of bioenergy utilization. Advanced biorefineries based on conversion of lignocellulosic biomass to high value energy carriers such as transport fuels could be one key option. Since secondgeneration biofuel production processes often have a relatively large net surplus of heat, integration with heat demands in district heating systems and/or existing industry can further increase the system efficiency and lower the costs Since secondgeneration biofuel production processes often have a relatively large net surplus of heat, integration with heat demands in district heating systems and/or existing industry can further increase the system efficiency and lower the costs (see e.g. Refs. [1,25])

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