Bioeconomy Transition Pathways – Potential Impacts for the EU Bio‐based Chemicals Sector

Abstract

SummaryThe European Commission's Green Deal sets out a bold vision to meet the challenges of biodiversity protection and net‐zero emissions, whilst forging a pathway for a circular model of competitive growth and job creation. To achieve these multiple challenges, the bioeconomy has a key role to play, particularly in the deployment of biomass in higher value‐added industrial applications. To support evidence‐based policy modelling, the EU H2020 funded project BioMonitor represents a first step toward both improving data transparency, particularly in bio‐industrial activities, and the creation of a single toolbox for the purpose of performing integrated modelling assessments of the bioeconomy. Comparing with a baseline, this study presents results from a series of medium to long‐term bio‐based industry focused transition narratives. In particular, the focus is on the EU bio‐based chemicals sector employing results from an economy‐wide simulation model from the toolbox, called MAGNET.Publicly backed fiscal support policies, costing between 0.22–0.25% of EU GDP by 2050, generate notable improvements in EU bio‐based chemical sector production and employment generation, as well as synergetic production increases in advanced generation biofuels. There is evidence of decarbonisation in the EU bio‐based chemicals sector, although more tangible improvements are achieved with the implementation of accompanying climate‐ and sustainable bio‐energy policies.